2nd UF Water Institute Symposium Abstract

Submitter's Name Thomas Bohrmann
Session Name Poster Session: Hydrologic, Biogeochemical and Ecological Processes 2
Category Hydrologic, biogeochemical and ecological processes
Poster Number 206
Author(s) Thomas Bohrmann,  University of Florida
  Mollie Brooks,  University of Florida
  Andrew Hein, University of Florida
  Forrest Stevens, University of Florida
  Joseph Luchetti, University of Florida
  Modeling hydrology and its effects on Florida Scrub jay on the Lake Wales ridge
  Florida's Lake Wales ridge is one of the few remaining habitats available for the Florida scrub jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a threatened species endemic to Florida. While the scrub jay has been the subject of intensive demographic research for more than 50 years, many of the environmental drivers of jay demography are still poorly understood. The long-term goal of our research is to connect climatic and hydrological patterns with resource and disease dynamics, in order to understand the ultimate causes of changes in jay demography. In order to achieve this goal, we are building descriptive hydrological models of pond depth and hydroperiod at Archbold Biological Station, combining long-term weather and groundwater data with shorter-term (20-year) time series on water depth in a subset of 25 ponds on the reserve. We are developing a series of models that range in their detail and level of mechanism from simple statistical models to physical models based on groundwater, infiltration, and evapotranspiration. By building predictive models for the pond data, we will be able to use climate data to extrapolate hydrological patterns spatially over the entire reserve (200 ponds) and temporally both historically (back to the 1950s, when the demographic data sets begin) and into the future, using predictions of future climate patterns.