2nd UF Water Institute Symposium Abstract

Submitter's Name Susan Risko
Session Name Poster Session: Managing Water and Energy in a Transitioning Environment 1
Category Managing water and energy in a transitioning environment
Poster Number 317
Author(s) Susan Risko,  University of Florida
  Chris Martinez,  University of Florida
  Long-range Streamflow Forecasts in the Tampa Bay Region Using ENSO
  Increasing pressures on the availability of Florida’s water supplies due to urban development and population growth require sophisticated management techniques to protect existing water resources. With the knowledge that climate represents a direct link to the availability of water supplies and by understanding the patterns associated with climatic influences, water resource managers can be better equipped for making more accurate water supply projections. This study has been conducted in support of Tampa Bay Water to efficiently perform groundwater/surface water source rotation to enhance system reliability using forecasted surface water supplies. Based on correlation and composite analysis of streamflow with gridded climate datasets at multiple lead times, the Niño 3 and Niño 3.4 indices were found to have significant correlations with streamflows in the region. Further analysis evaluates the Non-parametric Seasonal Forecast Model (NSFM) which integrates the use of historical streamflow data and climate information to determine various monthly and seasonal streamflow exceedance probabilities for multiple lead times. Exceedance probabilities are presented for three approaches of forecasting the first being the traditional use of historical streamflows, the second using only relevant climate information, and the last scenario being a combination of the previous two. Results from this study will provide Tampa Bay Water with the necessary tools and a thorough understanding of NSFM model processes and outputs for improved streamflow forecasts that will assist water resource managers in short-term source allocation decisions.