4th UF Water Institute Symposium Abstract

Submitter's Name Greg Kiker
Session Name Poster Session: Impact of changing drivers on water resources
Poster Number 8
Author(s) Greg Kiker,  Agr & Bio Engineering, University of Florida (Presenting Author)
  Anna Linhoss,  Mississippi State University
  Rafael  Munoz-Carpena, Agr & Bio Engineering, University of Florida
  Between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea: Florida’s Vulnerability To Sea Level Rise
  Climate change (via sea-level rise and altered weather patterns) is expected to significantly alter low-lying coastal and intertidal areas, which provide significant seasonal habitats for a variety of shoreline-dependent organisms. This research effort has utilized the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM), the MaxEnt species distribution model and the RAMAS-GIS metapopulation model to explore the current and future habitat/spatial distribution/population states as well as the spatial and temporal patterns of these uncertain results with Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Joint simulations of sea level rise at 0.2, 0.5, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 meters were conducted at 30m horizontal grid resolution for the Eglin Air Force Base/Santa Rosa Island areas and for the entire Florida Gulf and Atlantic Coasts (Pensacola to Naples; Miami to Georgia) at 120m grid resolution. While uncertainty levels are high, consistent simulation results from this integrated model show key results in two areas (1) potential habitat losses and (2) Snowy Plover population dynamics. The integrated models projected that the population size will decline faster than the area of habitat or carrying capacity, demonstrating the necessity of incorporating population dynamics in assessing the impacts of SLR on coastal species. Additional simulations were conducted for stakeholder meetings in Gulf and Atlantic coast communities. Results from these simulations were integrated into a multi-criteria decision analysis framework to assess tradeoffs in habitat restoration/protection and species-focused alternatives.