4th UF Water Institute Symposium Abstract

Submitter's Name Seungwoo Chang
Session Name Poster Session: Impact of changing drivers on water resources
Poster Number 40
Author(s) Seungwoo Chang,  Dept. of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida (Presenting Author)
  Wendy Graham,  Dept. of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida; UF Water Institute
  Syewoon Hwang, UF Water Institute
  Quantifying the relative uncertainties in future rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration projections across the USA using CMIP5
  Understanding climate change and its potential impacts on regional hydrology and water demand is important to reduce risks and increase resilience in water supply planning. For effective regional water resources planning, estimation of the range of possible regional precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration scenarios considering climate change is necessary. Also, a better understanding of future regional water demands considering changes in climate, population and land use is needed. The objective of this study is to analyze the uncertainty of applying GCMs climate change projections to hydrologic and crop water use models in order to predict future changes in water demands. Reference evapotranspiration is estimated in order to assess the risks and uncertainties of future water demand using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) retrospective climate model predictions and future climate projections for different GCMs and 4 future scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). The uncertainty of reference evapotranspiration is assessed due to different evapotranspiration estimation methods such as the Penman-Monteith, Hargreaves, Turc, Irmak, Blaney-Criddle and Hamon ET estimation methods. Retrospective reference evapotranspiration predictions are compared with reanalysis reference evapotranspiration (R2 reanalysis data) to evaluate the relative uncertainties across the USA. The results and methods of this study will be used to estimate and range of precipitation, evapotranspiration and water demand projections for future hydrologic study.